Professor Rob Wilby

B.Sc, Ph.D., (Loughborough)

Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling

email: R.L.Wilby@lboro.ac.uk
Tel : +44 (0)1509 223093
Fax: +44 (0)1509 223930

Room NN.1.23, Martin Hall building, East Park

Research Interests

• Scenarios of regional climate variability and change

• Climate change impacts on freshwater and urban environments

• Climate change adaptation strategies and environmental management

• Climate, water and human development in semi-arid regions

My main research focus is on climate variability and change in relation to the management of freshwater environments. With experience drawn from industry, government, consultancy and academia there is very much an applied emphasis to my work. For example, whilst the Environment Agency’s Climate Change Science Manager, I helped draft the annex on climate change for Planning Policy Statement PPS25 and Defra’s guidance on climate change allowances for flood risk management.

Following secondments to the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado I co-developed the climate scenario tool SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model). The tool is freely available (from: http://www.sdsm.org.uk) and has underpinned a range of climate change impact studies including assessments of future water supplies, flood risk (fluvial and tidal surge), air quality and urban heat island intensity. The tool has also been used to evaluate potential water resource and agricultural impacts in arid countries such as Djibouti, Jordan, Morocco, South Africa, Syria, and Yemen.

My current research is exploring smarter approaches to climate risk assessment and adaptation planning. This work challenges conventional frameworks including scenario-led strategies and shifts the focus to scenario use in adaption options appraisal. Particular attention is being paid to scenario use for water resource and flood risk management including, river flow scenarios to assist hydropower planning in Central Asia. A major review of global efforts to adapt to rising flood risk has also just been completed.

Journal papers since 2008

Parker, J.M. and Wilby, R.L. 2012. Quantifying domestic water demand: A review of theory and practice in the UK. Water Resource Management, submitted.

Wilby, R.L. and Dawson, C.W. 2012. The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM): Insights from one decade of application. International Journal of Climatology, submitted.

Orr, H.G., Simpson, G.L., des Clers, S., Watts, G. , Hughes, M., Hananford, J., Dunbar, M.J., Laize, C., Wilby, R.L., Battarbee, R.W., Evans, E. and Phillips, H. 2012. Evidence of widespread and rapid warming of rivers. Hydrological Processes, submitted.

Ekström, M., Kuruoou, N., Wilby, R.L., Fowler, H., Chiew, F., Dessai, S. and Young, W. 2012. Examination of climate risk in a modified uncertainty matrix framework. Global Environmental Change, submitted.

Wilby, R.L. and Keenan, R. 2012. Adapting to flood risk under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, in press.

Abrahart, R.J., Anctil, F., Coulibaly, P., Dawson, C.W., Mount, N.J., See, L.M., Shamseldin, A.Y., Solomatine, D.P., Toth, E. and Wilby, R.L. 2012. Two decades of anarchy? Emerging themes and outstanding challenges for neural network modelling in hydrology. Progress in Physical Geography, in press.

Pielke, R.A. Sr., Wilby, R.L., Niyogi, D., Hossain, F., Dairuku, K., Adegoke, J., Kallos, G., Seastedt, T. and Suding, K. 2012. Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective. American Geophysical Union Monograph on Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences, in press.

Wu, X., Yu, D., Chen, Z. and Wilby, R.L. 2012. An evaluation of land surface modification, storm sewer development, and rainfall variation on water-logging risk in Shanghai. Hydrological Sciences Journal, early view doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0153-1.

Everall, N.C., Farmer, A., Heath, A.F., Jacklin, T.E. and Wilby, R.L. 2012. Ecological benefits of creating messy rivers. Area, early view doi:10.1111/j.1475-4762.2012.01087.x.

Pielke, R.A. Sr. and Wilby, R.L. 2012. Regional climate downscaling – what’s the point? Eos, 93, 52-53.

Wilby, R.L., Fenn, C.R., Timlett, R., LeQuesne, T. and Wood, P.J. 2010. Smart licensing and environmental flows: Modelling framework and sensitivity testing. Water Resources Research, 47, W12524.

Wilby, R.L. 2011. Adaptation: Wells of wisdom. Nature Climate Change, 1, 302-303.

Wilby, R.L., Nicholls, R.J, Warren, R., Wheater, H.S., Clarke, D., and Dawson, R.J. 2011. New nuclear build sites: Adaptation options over their full life-cycle, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering, 164, 129-136.

Wilby, R.L. and Vaughan, K. 2011. The hallmarks of organisations that are adapting to climate change. Water and Environment Journal, 25, 271-281.

Wilby, R.L., Jones, P.D. and Lister, D. 2011. Decadal variations in the nocturnal heat island of London. Weather, 66, 59-64.

Wilby, R.L. 2010. Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications – opinion. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 1090-1093.

Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R.L., Crooks, S., Kay, A.L. and Reynard, N.S. 2010. Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk. Journal of Hydrology, 390, 198-209.

Wilby, R.L. and Dessai, S. 2010. Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather, 65, 180-185.

Wilby, R.L., Orr, H., Watts, G., Battarbee, R.W., Berry, P.M., Chadd, R., Dugdale, S.J, Dunbar, M.J., Elliott, J.A., Extence, C., Hannah, D.M., Holmes, N., Johnson, A.C., Knights, B., Milner, N.J., Ormerod, S.J., Solomon, D., Timlett, R., Whitehead, P.J. and Wood, P.J. 2010. Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: turning adaptation principles into practice. Science of the Total Environment, 408, 4150-4164.

Fowler, H. J. and Wilby, R.L. 2010. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. Water Resources Research, 46, W03525, doi:10.1029/2008WR007636.

Lopez, A., Fung, F., New, M., Watts, G., Weston, A. and Wilby, R.L. 2009. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: A case study of water resource management in the South West of England. Water Resources Research, 45, W08419.

Whitehead, P.G., Wilby, R.L., Battarbee, R., Kernan, M. and Wade, A. 2009. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54, 101-123.

Wilby, R.L., Troni, J., Biot, Y., Tedd, L., Hewitson, B.C., Smith, D.G. and Sutton, R.T. 2009. A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1193-1215.

Wilby, R.L., 2008. Constructing climate change scenarios of urban heat island intensity and air quality. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 35, 902-919.

Orr, H.G., Wilby, R.L., McKenzie-Hedger, M. and Brown, I. 2008. Limiting and adapting to climate change in the uplands: a UK perspective on ecosystem services. Climate Research, 37, 77-98.

Wilby, R.L., Beven, K.J. and Reynard, N.S. 2008. Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: More of the same? Hydrological Processes, 22, 2511-2523.

Books

O'Hare, G., Sweeney, J. and Wilby, R.L. 2005. Weather, Climate and Climate Change: Human Perspectives. Pearson Education Ltd, Harlow, 403pp.

Shackley, S., Kersey, J., Wilby, R.L. and Fleming, P. 2001. Changing by Degrees: The potential impacts of climate change in the East Midlands. Ashgate: Aldershot, 285pp.

Baird, A.J. and Wilby, R.L.1999. (Eds.) Eco-Hydrology: Plants and Water in Terrestrial and Aquatic Environments, Routledge, London, 402pp [English and Chinese].

Wilby, R.L. 1997. (Ed.) Contemporary Hydrology Wiley, Chichester, UK, 354pp.

Examples of Recent Projects

• Assessment of the utility of climate model scenarios for water policy, investment and operational decisions (World Bank)

• Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector (EBRD)

• Adaptable and resilient built environments for a changing climate (British Council)

• Regional climate change scenarios and impacts for Tunisia (World Bank)

• Climate for Development in South Asia (DFID)

• Climate Change Scenarios for the Republic of Yemen (World Bank)

• Navigating Climate Change Information and Data:  A Guide for Water and Wastewater Utilities (Awwa Research Foundation) http://www.theclimatechangeclearinghouse.org/Resources/TechBrief/default.aspx

• A Climate Scenarios Portal for the Middle East North Africa region (World Bank)

• Towards a Climate Smart WWF (WWF-UK)

• Climate change risks and adaptation options for Djibouti (World Bank)

• Detection of a Climate Change Signal in Flood Generating Rainfall (Environment Agency)

• Review of Climate Change Scenarios for Nordeste Brazil and Niger (Tearfund)

• Review of Climate Change Research and Development Sciences in the UK (UK Collaborative on Development Sciences)

• Morocco: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture Sector (World Bank)

• Improving Developing Country Capability to Predict Climate Change (DFID)

External Roles

• Review or Associate Editor for Climate Research and the International Journal of Climatology

• Chair of the British Energy Climate Change (BECC) Working Group

• Peer reviewer of IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Zero Order Draft)

• Peer reviewer of UK Government’s first Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

• External Examiner for Masters Degree Courses run at the University of Newcastle (2007-2010); Maynooth University of Ireland (2009-); Oxford University (2011-)